Time for PC to run on MS-Word

With the global financial crisis slowing spreading its claws across India, the government which till now was flaying India’s exponential growth story has been forced to rethink its policies.

But what a great time for India to have a crisis like this!!! Phew... you must be wondering how that could be true. But I mean it. In fact, with Manmohan Singh at the helm of affairs, India couldn’t have asked for a better timing to deal with this crisis. Manmohan Singh’s antics back in 1991 are still not forgotten. With a foreign exchange reserve just enough to meet India’s import needs for another week, the good doctor had swung into action and had introduced what is now known as the economic reforms era. And the results are there for everyone to see.

Now with another crisis looming large over the head and with the doctor along with his old and trusted team of P Chidambaram and Montek Singh Ahluwalia back at the helm, they shouldn’t find themselves in an unfamiliar situation. Given the huge similarities between the 1991 era and today’s situation, I wonder whether they are nostalgic at times.... recalling their past days. 

With its honeymoon with the US and the 123 behind the back, the government should now try to get the economy back on track. In spite of the current scenario, it’s basically a US crisis which is spilling over to other parts of the world. And this has led to the recent market meltdown (where are those decoupling stories I had been hearing of, its back to the same old days of waiting for global market cues every morning and promptly falling in line). We are still a very stable economy in ourselves. Hence the FM who is dying a hundred deaths every time the Sensex slips should focus more on getting the fundamentals right. Oops... they are already right, he needs to make it stronger.

Or rather it’s time for P Chidambaram (PC) to lay back a bit and let Manmohan Singh (MS) call the shots in the finance ministry... (For those wondering how the title of the post fitted in, I hope I have cleared your doubts now). After all, isn’t this the ideal time for the ‘Economic Reforms Part – II’ to be unleashed. And who’s better than the doctor himself to get his hands on it. Manmohan Singh, with his hands tied by the Left for the major part of his rule, would like to take some positives back home. And here’s a golden chance awaiting him!!! Its time which will tell whether he is successful in his second innings. Till then, Indians are keeping their fingers crossed. For now, we can only hope that he starts on the path already traversed by him in 1991.

The Bomb in the N-deal

After the US went public, or in their terms – cleared a few misconceptions about the N-deal related to right to test, fuel reprocessing and the legal invalidity of the clause pertaining to fuel supply assurances till perpetuity, the Indian government has been pushed on the back foot. However these circumstances have led to the emergence of a few doubts. Quite a few NSG members were not supportive of the 123 agreement because that gave India a backdoor entry to the elite group of “N” nations without signing the NPT. If a clause for testing was present as mentioned in the letter made public, why was there an objection from the NSG members? There’s surely something more than what meets the eye. Even the timing of the release (a couple of days before NSG board meets to discuss the issue) raises a few eyebrows.

But it is Dr. Manmohan Singh’s name that evokes trust among the people. If he is strongly supportive of the deal going through, there must be something in it worth reconsidering.

Due to the recent developments, the major factor India has to look forward to is to ensure that the deal passes through the NSG stage. After that, it will be a case for India to pursue on a country-to-country basis. So even if the deal runs into rough weather in America, India can always bank upon its traditional allies, namely France and Russia, to pull it out of the mess. After all, it has not been forgotten how Russia went out of its way to provide fuel for the Tarapur plant when its reactors were on the verge of closing down due to lack of fuel supply. India will have to ensure that it keeps its allies in good humour and does not go on to offend them while extending generous overtures to the US. After all, these are the reliable members who have always supported India’s case at international forums. And only these members can be expected to bail India out in case the US does a U-turn when it sees its own interests fading...
As the adage goes:

Be nice to people on your way up because you meet them on your way down

Musharraf's Exit and it's Implications for India

The dance of democracy has begun on the streets of Islamabad. With the international media coverage with its full glare in Pakistan, the people do not need to be prompted. They break out into a jig as soon as a TV camera comes approaching. I have always wondered whether there is a tactical understanding between these people and the camera crew.

Well, the Pakistanis have reason to rejoice. The president/military chief/dictator (whatever you may call him) has finally lost his grip over the administration. Finally, a semblance of democracy has been restored, though doubts have been raised over its stability. In all the hurry, the Pakistanis should avoid being fickle. They should thank Musharraf for everything he has done for the larger interests and the long term benefits of the country. Right from a sagging economy to a corrupt administration, he tried to bring things in order and succeeded to a large extent.

Coming to India, concerns over his exit are being raised behind closed doors in the galleries of power. Though he started as a military dictator, the post 9/11 scenario and the US pressure kept him in check. And he gradually softened towards the end of his rule. He was a person instrumental in maintaining the ceasefire along the line of control (LoC). It’s not a coincidence that his exit has led to the banned militant outfits reopening their offices in the hub of Karachi. Not only that, there are reports of ceasefire violations almost daily along the LoC. This was a thing which had not happened for years since the mutual announcement of the ceasefire. The attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul, where India has a strategic upper hand in the hearts of the Afganistanis much to the chagrin of the power players in Pakistan furthers this case.

All these clues are not coincidental, given the power shift in Pakistan. And these hints will not be missed in Delhi. So here’s the irony... the man responsible for Kargil will be missed in the corridors of power in Delhi...

The times, thy sure are changing...