Friday, September 5, 2008

The Bomb in the N-deal

After the US went public, or in their terms – cleared a few misconceptions about the N-deal related to right to test, fuel reprocessing and the legal invalidity of the clause pertaining to fuel supply assurances till perpetuity, the Indian government has been pushed on the back foot. However these circumstances have led to the emergence of a few doubts. Quite a few NSG members were not supportive of the 123 agreement because that gave India a backdoor entry to the elite group of “N” nations without signing the NPT. If a clause for testing was present as mentioned in the letter made public, why was there an objection from the NSG members? There’s surely something more than what meets the eye. Even the timing of the release (a couple of days before NSG board meets to discuss the issue) raises a few eyebrows.

But it is Dr. Manmohan Singh’s name that evokes trust among the people. If he is strongly supportive of the deal going through, there must be something in it worth reconsidering.

Due to the recent developments, the major factor India has to look forward to is to ensure that the deal passes through the NSG stage. After that, it will be a case for India to pursue on a country-to-country basis. So even if the deal runs into rough weather in America, India can always bank upon its traditional allies, namely France and Russia, to pull it out of the mess. After all, it has not been forgotten how Russia went out of its way to provide fuel for the Tarapur plant when its reactors were on the verge of closing down due to lack of fuel supply. India will have to ensure that it keeps its allies in good humour and does not go on to offend them while extending generous overtures to the US. After all, these are the reliable members who have always supported India’s case at international forums. And only these members can be expected to bail India out in case the US does a U-turn when it sees its own interests fading...
As the adage goes:
Be nice to people on your way up because you meet them on your way down